Sunday, 19th July, 2,009.
DDD361
Swine Flu
My blog to Tracker Blogger Nick's Swine Flu Graphs' site.
I shall not be too popular I know, but although this is VERY long, I do urge you to post this up, or the salient points. BUT ABOVE ALL SEE THAT IT GETS TO THE EYES OF THE TRACKER BLOGGER(Nick) doing such good work there, with his great graphs,etc!!(I do this out of the deepest concern for us all.)
Taking a quick cursory look at the broad picture regarding Influenza, especially since the special varieties Spanish Flu, Hong Kong Flu, Asian Flu, Bird Flu and now Swine Flu, I would like to make the following comments:-
1. These pandemics(originally called epidemics)seem to last 18 to 24 months. Swine Flu, which began early last April, has only been running about three months. So we can expect to still have about 15 to 21 months left to go.
It has only just begun. Thriving in cold damp weather it eases off a lot in the warmer and drier seasons. Though still continues! My point is that it is still too early to make lasting remarks on its progress. I note that(there are three graph curves, straight line ascent is per arithmetic progression, parabolic curve is per geometric progression and hyperbolic curve is per harmonic progression. Once we know the basic graph curves we can, I think, better determine outcomes. In this instance the curve seems to be hyperbolic(the highest kind). Though still possibly parabolic(which is almost as bad!). The virus, though not bound by mathematical graph curves(!), should indicate a basic graph curve.A point of interest is that this particular virus, H1N1(swine flu), seems to be due to a vaccine error made by Baxter Laboratories, U.S. - They added a mix of bird, swine and human to a vaccine they were making, and distributed it world wide.(Well, mistakes do happen.)(This error COULD be a tragic one, if Spanish Flu or worse eventuates)(It is not due to the little Mexican boy's close contact with pigs.)
2. There is a 50 - 50(the proteins play dice with the enzymes) chance of us being hit by a severe second wave.(Remember that this virus(Swine Flu) is from the same family as The Spanish Flu, and is showing a remarkably similar pattern to that horror.(It killed more than the terrible first world war.)(And in half the time.) Which may be expected(Northern Hemisphere) in October.)
3. Apart from the waves, there is(are) also the movements(Spanish Flu, Hong Kong Flu,etc.).
It COULD be that the movements go in cycles. Gradually weakening in each cycle. As it passed from Spanish Flu to Hong Kong Flu to Asian Flu to Bird Flu...) I am suggesting the dire possibility of (remember that Influenza is getting more and more deadly) a new cycle starting up THIS TIME, with a reversion to a severe movement. Possibly even worse than The Spanish Flu. Add to this the increasing chance of a Bird Flu variant(due to third world countries, especially in Asia, having SO MANY pigs, chickens,etc., even with each household, let alone farms)(The likelihood of the virus mutating via pigs, birds and humans is DRAMATICALLY increasing as we go along. Now a repeat of Spanish Flu would be grim enough, but to have Bird Flu rampant AS WELL(60% mortality rate!) could WELL wipe out Humanity. And many animals,too. One OR the other event would be awful, but BOTH would be catastrophic!! 4. It is hitting those in puberty most, the elderly least. This could be due to life style(evidently is).(The younger one is, the more one GETS AROUND.(Thus coming into contact more with others.)) Being a new disease, influenza variety, no one is immune to it!(The virus is opportunistic rather than selective. And so hits the young, healthy or not, and most young are healthy.)5. In Australia, the virus is dropping Victoria, and going for Queensland and New South Wales. The question is why. Victoria is not getting warmer and drier! And much of Queensland IS(warm, at least).(It could be that the colder damper south (Queensland) is so hard hit, that it is dragging down the whole state!) N.S.W. is cold and damp, so no puzzle there. But why is Victoria dropping off(what has changed?)? Are The Victorians secluding themselves more now? Or has the reporting system been hashed so much that a drop off(false) is showing up?
6. Yes, an increase in reporting is no doubt enhancing the figures.(The question is How much?? Can we make comparisions with other Southern Hemisphere countries, like New Zealand??(Unless they too are upping reporting!) Difficult.
7. The break-down into cases and age groups is interesting, but urge need to keep eye on big picture!(local revelations are no doubt informative for locals).
8. I am saying that this THING COULD become very dangerous. At the very least it is very dislocative. The point is Influenza(in general) is getting worse... It is probing human defences. An initial landing prior to a more severe SECOND WAVE??
9. The WHO,etc. are being very wise to treat this thing VERY carefully(Though it is little worse than ordinary flu, and currently STILL not widespread at all, what we MOST URGENTLY need to be on guard against is the pressure by some for complacency.) Let us be VERY careful about what MAY happen. Better to look a fool and live, than let in A MONSTER, and POSSIBLY have Humanity wiped out(or reduced to The Dark Ages!!). Plus animals. We most DIRELY need to be VERY CAREFUL indeed. The authorities are fortunately WELL cognizant of that fact!!
10. As we use Tamiflu more and more, the virus gets increasingly able to RESIST it!(Relenza is not YET defeated by the virus, but Tamiflu is increasingly so.)(A vaccine is several MONTHS away yet. True, a peak may be expected in August(safer I think to say early September), but in another six months, it is back in swing again!
11. Are you all hoping that Swine Flu gets beaten?(It will eventually of course. It is currently little worse than Ordinary Influenza.) I don't rate your the hopes. How many are aware that this THING could save Humanity? I am referring to the MANY OTHER horrors(I can count 40!) now rising up against the world!
BY BRINGING THE WHOLE WORLD TO ITS KNEES. Perhaps literally!! It MAY knock out the OTHER growing horrors and terrors, and save us all IN THE LONG RUN!!!! North Korea for instance, and a fast growing number of other nations,ETC.(Better to have a slightly reduced world population than NONE AT ALL!!)
Vicon.
